2015 PREDICTIONS - YANKEES & METS

Of course, I will begin with the Yankees!  This year’s team is the hardest to project, without question; that’s because there are way too many “questions”.  Health is the most important factor for all teams; but, with the Yankees having former superstar-caliber players such as Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, CC Sabathia, Carlos Beltran, Michael Pineda, and Masahiro Tanaka who all have carried-over health issues, it’s a HUGE factor.  Each of these players can contribute dynamically enough to add or subtract considerable wins that can make or break the end results in October.

The best thing that the Yankees offer this year is diversity.  Their farm system, as I’ve mentioned in prior articles, is the best they’ve had in almost 20 years!  Put that together with their willingness to spend money if they need to acquire other quality player/players during the course of the season and they can offer more than a quick-fix band-aid if needed.

Additionally, the American League’s Eastern Division is weak.  Many critics are picking either the Orioles or the Red Sox to win; but I believe they’re wrong.  The Orioles lost 2 key players (Nelson Cruz & Andrew Miller) and even with some of their formerly injured players now able to contribute, the Orioles are still significantly weaker than they were as last year’s division champs.  The Red Sox have definitely improved their offense, but they are lacking an ace or even a pitcher that qualifies above a number 3 starter’s proven competence.  Both teams also have a very good farm system, but if either needs to spend money to acquire an outside player, the Orioles would probably back down, while the Red Sox would certainly spend.  Again, though, the Red Sox already need something now, while the Yankees don’t.

My biggest specific concern regarding the Yankees' health surrounds Tanaka and Sabathia.  Tanaka has already shown he can still be effective throughout spring training, but Sabathia hasn’t shown enough positives.  His knee has no cartilage and his velocity has diminished.  If Tanaka can continue showing enough to puzzle the hitters without completely tearing his already slightly torn ACL, then he should win 18 games.  If Sabathia keeps throwing as ineffective as he has thus far, the Yankees and he may have to make some very hard decisions.

This year, I am most excited about the 2015 signings of Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius, Andrew Miller, Justin Wilson, and Nathan Eovaldi.  With that group added for a full season, the anticipated continuance of the NYY youth movement, the potential of being able to acquire decent players, and a weakened division in the American League East, I predict the Yankees to win 87 games this season.

As for the Mets, I’m not going to break them down to any extent because they haven’t radically changed too much from last year, other than adding Michael Cuddyer and 2 lefty relievers that they attained at the last minute (a few days ago).  Besides, I’m the NYY writer, not the NYM writer, so I have the option!

The Mets’ biggest difference/hope is the return of Matt Harvey.  If he is as effective as he’s demonstrated over the last 6 weeks (and as he did prior to his Tommy John surgery), then he will contribute immensely; however, their bullpen seems to be too weak to help tag-team with Matt in trying to achieve 9 full innings of effectiveness.  Furthermore, Matt can only contribute every 5^th game!  The Nationals have improved too much (except for their defense) for the Mets to overtake them as a divisional winner and other National League teams have strengthened more than the Mets did, which lessens their chances of qualifying for either of the two wild card options.

The Mets have some starting pitchers in their farm system who are now within reach of this year’s 25-man roster.  They almost never spend for needed acquisitions, so their only improvement will have to come from within their farm system (strong, but not strong beyond starting pitching).  In all, I predict the Mets to win 83 games this season.

Play ball!!!