CHECK, CHECK, CHECK, CHECK, CHECK, MISS!

Well, another non-waiver trade deadline has passed.  This year, the Yankees needed to accomplish 6 things and accomplished 5 of them.

The one thing they failed to achieve was the least of the 6 - attaining an extra outfielder with a lot of Major League experience.  That player could have acted as a backup to Aaron Judge (during his DL stint) and to play once in a while to rest the other outfielders.  It was not a major need, but such an experienced outfielder would have been nice to have on the 25-man roster.  Now, the Yankees will wait for Clint Frazier and Aaron Judge to return from the disabled list and either continue using Shane Robinson or perhaps call up someone like Ryan McBroom, an outfielder/first baseman from their minor league system.

The Yankees certainly improved their team and their future with the 5 checkpoints they “did” accomplish.  In general, they acquired a starting pitcher to potentially replace Domingo German, a starting pitcher to potentially replace Sonny Gray, a better left-handed reliever than Chasen Shreve (and as insurance with Aroldis Chapman’s lingering leg issue), a backup first baseman with some power to replace coveted Tyler Austin, and some international spending money to offer contracts to some of the young cream-of-the-crop international talent.

Through each of these recent deals, the Yankees managed to only trade away players who they would have had to protect or expose on this season’s upcoming Rule 5 Draft.  Why be vulnerable to losing them for basically nothing when you can get a lot more at this stage instead?  Brilliant planning, Brian Cashman, and thanks!

Below are the breakdowns of the multitude of transactions they’ve executed over the last 6 days:

Attained:

Closer, Zach Britton (This acquisition was my favorite this past week, so I’ve written the most about it!)

With all the homeruns being hit in this era (the Yankees may break the MLB record this year) and with all the hitters mainly focused on trying to hit those homeruns, the best type of pitcher to have for late innings is one who rarely gives up homeruns.  The Yankees acquired such a player in a lefty closer, Zach Britton.  He has a nasty sinker which produces groundball outs at a rate of approximately 80%.  While Yankee Stadium’s dimensions are ideal for the hitters they usually attain, it can also be very detrimental against them, especially if a Yankees’ pitcher is overly dependent on fastballs.  Zach is the best type of pitcher to defy short-porch homeruns. 

Additionally, his sinking motion baffles hitters and helps induce a very good number of strikeouts.  Between the strikeouts and the ground balls, the Yankees’ outfielders will be bored during his relief appearances.

He recently had Achilles heel surgery, but has shown nothing but an upside since his 2018 return.  Zach’s WHIP is certainly not awesome this year, but it’s been rapidly improving since his return from the surgery with all signs pointing towards his 2016 season -  a season in which he had one of the best seasons by anybody in baseball history!  The Yankees know Britton firsthand as he has dominated them enough, including this season.  Thankfully, he has also dominated the Boston Red Sox!   That aspect, alone, is a worthy reason to have attained him.  He’s a free agent after this season, but I’m pretty sure the Yankees (with their upcoming reset expense account) will offer him an attractive new contract shortly after this season ends.

As a closer, most of his career, Zach Britton could contingently become the Yankees’ closer if Chapman’s lingering leg injury worsens, or at least offer closing duties sporadically during an off-day for Chapman.  With Zach’s addition, the Yankees now have 4 successfully-proven closers to choose from as he, Chapman, David Robertson, and Dellin Betances have each saved large amounts of games in the majors.  Those arms, along with tough-pitching Chad Green and steadily-progressing Jonathan Holder now offers the most dominating collective bullpen in the majors - perhaps of all time!  With Zach Britton’s addition the Yankees now have the option to slam the door on any team from the 4^th inning to the 9^th!!

Traded Away:  

Minor league pitchers, Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll, and Josh Rogers

The Yankees traded him to the Baltimore Orioles for 3 young pitchers: Dillon Tate (right-handed), Cody Carroll (right-handed), and Josh Rogers (left-handed).  Carroll is the closest of the three to being ready for the majors and has some very good numbers.  Tate’s potential is there, but it’s too early to substantially determine his probable fate.  As for Rogers, I’m not a fan of his stats, thus far.

Attained:

Starting Pitcher, J.A. Happ

The Yankees have been seriously evaluating starting pitchers all season.  Over the last few weeks, one of the names that was constantly mentioned publicly was J.A. Happ.  Well, it finally “Happ”ened!  He was having a very dominating year until his last few starts for the Toronto Blue Jays.  Since all baseball players have spouts of highs and lows, I believe that the only way to truly evaluate them is to focus on the most recent season’s overall actual production numbers.  That being said, Happ should be a valuable asset to the Yankees’ starting rotation.  (He already provided them with a win this past Sunday.)

He, like Britton, is in the final year of his contract and will become a free agent after this season.  The Yankees became desperate for a starting pitcher lately, after first losing Jordan Montgomery to surgery and then getting too many poor starts from Domingo German and Sonny Gray.  Domingo has proved to still need more development and Sonny Gray has been very ineffective (although he’s shown improvement lately).  Even Luis Severino, a 2018 All-Star, has shown some concerns over his last few outings.  Other teams knew the Yankees had recently become desperate and have been asking for the Yankees to basically hand over their 2 Rookie-of-the-Year candidates (Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres) along with their whole AAA farm system!  While the Yankees did not acquire an ace starter this year, they will definitely find one over the winter.  This round, Brian Cashman showed his patience, though, and ended up making an alternative and reasonable deal with the Blue Jays to attain Happ.

Traded Away:

3B, Brandon Drury and OF, Billy McKinney

The Yankees had just acquired Drury earlier this season.  They weren’t sure if Miguel Andujar (one of their top rookies) was ready to play on their team.  It didn’t take long for Andujar to show his value.  That, with Drury’s entrance to the disabled list with chronic migraines made Drury’s career with the Yankees expendable.  I liked Drury and feel like he would have succeeded, but agree that Andujar’s early career was too much for almost anybody to make the roster as a third baseman.  As for McKinney, he was a very good defensive outfielder.  His offense was very good, but not good enough to find his way to the Yankees team any time soon.

Attained:

1B, Luke Voit & $1 Million for future international bonus pool money

Luke is similar to Tyler Austin, defensively and offensively.  The key to this deal was the international money.  Austin was probably sought by other teams and the Yankees wanted to ensure his abilities weren’t totally subtracted.  (Read below to see what the Yankees did with Austin the very next day).  As for the international pool money, the Yankees believe that this year’s crop of talent in that league offers them a few key players to draft.  They obviously realize what they’ve done with the current team and current minor league system, whereby they’ve built a strong structure in all levels.

Traded Away:

Relievers, Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos

All Yankees’ fans have had enough of Chasen Shreve this season (and last).  He did have one good season a few years ago, but he’s clearly developed into our worst bullpen pitcher.  As mentioned before, our bullpen is loaded with talent, so Schreve’s failures stand out like a sore thumb!  Giovanny wasn’t exactly impressing us, either.  Good riddance to both.

Attained:

$1 Million for future international bonus pool money from the Chicago White Sox

(already used $600,000 of those funds the next day by signing 16-year-old Cuban righty Osiel Rodriguez (international prospect #5 per Baseball America/#9 per MLB)

Traded Away:

Reliever, Caleb Frare

Caleb has had very impressive numbers for the Yankees’ AA team (Trenton Thunder).  He’s a young (25) left-handed reliever and has produced more strikeouts than innings pitched, along with less hits.  His WHIP with them was 0.966.  He is one to watch in the White Sox system. This deal is scary to me, but perhaps Osiel will turn out to be worthier in the long run.

Attained:

$1.25 million for future international bonus pool money from the Seattle Mariners

Traded Away:

Reliever, Adam Warren

I liked Warren.  He always had his best years in pinstripes.  When they traded him in 2016 to the Cubs, he didn’t do well.  Then, later that season, the Yankees traded for Warren to return to their club.  He, then, immediately returned to being a very good reliever.  He struggled a little bit this season, but mostly over his most recent outings.  With the trade of Shreve, Warren was considered the lowest asset amongst that great bullpen.  The Yankees will presumably save at least $1 million of their payroll from this trade.

Attained:

SP, Lance Lynn from the Minnesota Twins

Lynn compiled a 5.10 ERA in 20 starts this season for the Twins, but during his last 12 starts, he pitched to a 3.74 ERA.  I am not worried at all about his earlier numbers this season because he began the season late (without spring training).  That’s a big deal to any starting pitcher.  Furthermore, I always factor about 0.6 difference in ERAs between the American League (with the DH) versus the National League (without the DH).  Additionally, his numbers against the Red Sox are very good, although it’s a small sample.  Anytime you can gain an advantage over the Sawx, it’s a worthy benefit.  The Yankees and Twins reportedly will split paying the remaining $4 million that Lynn is owed this season, so the aforementioned Adam Warren trade helped offset about half of the incurred expense in this deal.

Traded Away:

1B, Tyler Austin and Reliever, Luis Rijo

Austin was a good player during his tenure on the Yankees’ 25-man roster earlier this year.  Who will ever forget his Major League debut during the 2016 season when he and Aaron Judge hit back-to-back homeruns as rookies in their very first at-bats?  As mentioned, Austin and recently acquired, Luke Voit, were very similar and it was clear that Austin’s days were numbered as soon as the Voit deal was transacted.  Rijo is only 19 years old and has just begun in the Single A level.  At this extremely early stage, he looks to be so-so; but, it’s way too early to project what kind of pitcher Rijo may become a few years from now.

WOW, that was indeed a lot to write about!!!

TIME-OUT

Today represents the first day of the 2018 All-Star break.  At this point, the Yankees have certainly delivered a very good season.  They are 29 games above the .500 mark with a 62-33 record and own the second-best record in baseball.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that the Yankees are 4.5 games behind the team with the best record in baseball…the Red Sox (a team who seems to have forgotten how to lose)!

The Yankees could, of course, overtake that lead with over 75 games left to play; but, if they don’t, it would mean that (unless they totally fall apart) they will be playing a 1-game wildcard/playoff game, just like they did last year.  This season, though, all of the potential opponents are much better than the Twins were last year.

Before the season began, it was clear that the Yankees required additional starting pitchers.  It’s become even more evident as the season progressed, especially with the season-ending surgery incurred by Jordan Montgomery.  There are a decent number of starters out there on the market today and more will become available as we approach the non-waiver trading deadline, July 31 (by 4:00 PM).  The first name most New Yorkers relate is Jason deGrom from the Mets.  He has 2.5 years remaining until free agency and the Mets are downright awful!  The Mets need to make at least 2 major trades to gain any hope for next season (since their farm system has been rated as one of the worst).  If executed wisely, the Mets could gain multiple future stars versus 1 or 2 current stars.  Whether they choose to do the right thing, or not, is up to their chintzy owners.

I would love to have deGrom, but it is highly unlikely that either team would be willing to risk becoming the losing team in such a prominent trade.  The Mets would expect more young talent from the Yankees than any other potential trade partner.  While deGrom’s ERA is the lowest in the majors (1.68), I do have some reservations beyond the potential that several of those players could eventually become superstars for the Mets.  My concerns evolve around deGrom, mainly his health and his not being a lefty pitcher.  For the former, he’s 30 years old and has been under the supervision of the Mets’ trainers, who have an awful track record of monitoring and conditioning properly (their former trainers and their recent ones).  Yoenis Cespedes is a primary example.  As for deGrom’s awesome pitching as a righty, the Yankees clearly need to attain a lefty.  That’s because the Red Sox are the team to beat and their numbers against lefties are downright awful!  Additionally, Yankee Stadium is structured for lefty pitchers.

I not only prefer the Yankees attain a lefty, I would also prefer them to attain a starting pitcher who:

- has an excellent WHIP (Walks & Hits per Innings Pitched) somewhere below 1.25;
- is no older than 27; and
- is at least 6’ 2”.

The reason for the latter is because the plane of the pitch has a scientific advantage with over-the-top throws, if pitched properly.  Such pitchers (from teams who are presumably out of the race at this point) would include Blake Snell (Tampa Rays), Tyler Skaggs (LA Angels), and Sean Manaea (Oakland A’s).  For any of them, the Yankees would probably have to start their trade talks with their number one pitching prospect, Justin Sheffield (a lefty pitcher who is destined for the Major Leagues by next season).  The Yankees would most likely have to include at least 2 other superstars from their farm system and perhaps a promising young pitcher (Domingo German) from their current roster.  To me, if the Yankees were to attain such an arm meeting my 3 criteria, it would make such an acquisition absolutely worth the risk, especially since the Yankees have a high enough surplus of youthful prospects, whereby a trade of 3 of them would still leave them with plenty.

Besides deGrom, the press and the fans have been rumoring about the Yankees trying to acquire Manny Machado from the Baltimore Orioles (.315 batting average / 24 homers / 65 RBIs).  He has been playing shortstop this season, per his own request.  That’s because, after this season, he will become a free agent and shortstops tend to draw higher contracts than third basemen.  The Yankees have Didi Gregorius as their shortstop and one of their phenomenal rookies, Miguel Andujar, as their third baseman.  More than likely, if the Yankees did attain Machado, they would ask him to shift back to third base, while keeping Didi as their shortstop.  Besides, Machado’s defensive skills as a shortstop are below average.  He’s made twice as many errors there as Didi this year.  Then, the Yankees would probably trade Andujar because supposedly a lot of teams have been inquiring about his young talent, with many offensive stats above most rookies in 2018.  Additionally, at that point, the Yankees would still have Brandon Drury (currently on the AAA team, only because Andujar has excelled too much to remove him).  They could either use Drury as a third base backup option or they could also trade him.

I still want the Yankees to attain a starting lefty as a priority, but I also recognize that the Yankees have close to a 50:50 chance of playing in a winner-take-all playoff game.  An added dominant hitter would be very advantageous to include in that game’s lineup.  More than likely, that crucial game would already have the Yankees scheduling their ace, Luis Severino, to pitch.  That means that any acquired starting pitcher would be irrelevant for that specific game.  Of course any great starting pitcher that the Yankees could acquire would be very valuable for any game that follows; but, there would be NO game that follows if they don’t win the winner-take-all game!

Again, the Yankees have enough youthful talent to include in a substantial trade.  In fact, I think they have enough to make two great trades!  Even if they deplete a lot, next year their luxury tax restriction will be reset; so, they can then offer competitive deals to free agents to fulfill any imperatively needed enhancements.