2014 SEASON FORECAST (NYY & NYM)

How exciting is it that baseball is back?  I’m very excited because it’s absolutely my favorite sport.  In New York, we’ve already had one game played for each NY team - both teams lost.

The Mets’ loss was a tearjerker for their fans.  They had an early 3-0 lead at their own ballpark and retained a lead until the 9^th inning before the game was blown (tied in the 9^th & lost in the 10^th).  Most of their issues came from their pathetic bullpen and the result of their batters striking out 18 times (I thought they were swatting at gnats from the dampness of the day’s earlier snow in New York).  There is no way their bullpen can help them compete, as they are downright awful!  I was recently disputing Bobby Parnell’s (their closer) performance during spring training, stating that he looked overly ineffective.  The Mets’ fan (a friend of mine) that argued with me insisted that Parnell looked great.  Well, lo-and-behold it ended up that Parnell totally blew the lead in the 9^th inning giving up the tying run, with 2 outs.  Not only did he demonstrate ineffectiveness, but he was later diagnosed with an MCL tear in his elbow, which may lead to surgery.  Of course, Parnell is only one member of that pitiful bullpen.  So, no matter how they replace him, their bullpen as a whole will remain dismal.

The Yankees’ loss (in Houston) was no bargain, either.  CC Sabathia was ineffective during the first 2 innings.  While he later found the lower portion of the strike zone with less velocity than 2 years ago, the score was already 6-0.  The Yankees began to gain some momentum, but it was too late.  Unlike the Mets, I love the Yankees’ bullpen as a whole.  David Robertson (the best bullpen pitcher on either team) still has to prove he can close games, but even if he winds up back as the 8^th inning guy, I believe there are enough arms and strong personalities in their bullpen.  The latter sounds unrelated, but it’s a HUGE factor for success, especially as a bullpen pitcher.  Dellin Betances was throwing around 99 MPH and may finally shine this year.  If so, he can close games, if needed, or become the 8^th inning guy.  Time will tell if he is truly a force to be reckoned with as this season continues.

Here are summaries of my NY teams’ predictions:

Mets - 78 Wins/84 Losses

Overall Weaknesses:

- Bullpen
- Infield defense
- Lack of any shortstop
- Hitting
- Bartolo Colon avoiding a 2nd suspension (150-game-suspension would result)

Overall Strengths:

- Wright’s bat
- Murphy’s bat
- Granderson’s attitude/persona

Overall Comments:
- As a NY team, they need to spend at least some of the money the Wilpon family got back from their crooked deals.
- Their farm system is overrated.
- We all know about Matt Harvey, but with Parnell & Harvey both incurring elbow injuries within a short time, the Mets had better pay attention to their conditioning & medical staff (and Jonathon Niese’s medical complaints).
- Players like Murphy & Duda can hit, but too many of these “developed” players keep coming up from the Mets’ farm system without any impressive defensive abilities (add Ruben Tejada to that list).
- The Mets keep bragging about their young pitchers, but haven’t developed any pitchers that qualify as true aces or even number two starters, other than Harvey over a very long period.  Wheeler has yet to prove anything close to what Harvey had shown!

Yankees - 91 Wins/71 Losses

Overall Weaknesses:

- Aging & health of Jeter & Teixeira
- Lack of power from current infielders
- Mediocrity of CC

Overall Strengths:

- Starting Pitching (other than CC)
- Bullpen
- Outfield Offense

Overall Comments:

- The NYY still need to attain a power-hitting infielder.
- No one will ever replace Mariano, but David Robertson’s Houdini act may help him prove to be suitable and, if not, other quality arms exist.
- Their farm system (with a few upgrades in the offseason) has potential players ready to contribute, even though all of baseball refuses to admit it.  Last year, some of the farmhands had health issues, but this year’s major league team consists of more than one third of their 25-man roster (new or now-healthy) who came from or played on their 2013 AAA team!  (Ivan Nova, Dean Anna, Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Yangervis Solarte, Francisco Cervelli, Vidal Nuño, & Dellin Betances).

Of course, these predictions are based on the current NYY & NYM teams.  Injuries, trades, and many other factors will “come to play”, but most baseball fans (including me) love to offer their seasonal predictions.  It’ll be fun to review at the end of the season.