Tuesday, December 29, 2015

THE NYY 2015 OFFSEASON TRANSACTIONS

A lot of MLB transactions have taken place thus far.  The New York Yankees have been one of the most active teams in the trade market, but not the free-agent market.  As they wait for the expiration of this upcoming season's contracts of Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran, they have stated that they won't spend crazily for this year's roster.  Yet, they've already made enough low-costing transactions that it's starting to get to the point where it's hard to keep up; so, I decided to assess their transactions before the year ends:

Aroldis Chapman LHP
Yesterday, the NYY acquired Aroldis Chapman in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds for four minor league players - 1B/3B Eric Jagielo, 2B Tony Renda, RHP Caleb Cotham, and RHP Rookie Davis.  While Jagielo and Davis are considered decent prospects, neither are in the Yankees’ top tier and the other two prospects presumably have lower ceilings than either of them.  Chapman is considered the best closer in the game today.  He throws the most dominant fastball in the majors, averaging 99.3 miles per hour.  Chapman threw 100 mph or above with 300 of his fastballs.  In fact, many times his pitches were clocked/recorded at 103 mph and he even attained one pitch in his past against the Pirates that was officially clocked at 106 mph!  Brian McCann might have to add a lot of cushion into his catcher’s mitt to prevent a hand injury!  Chapman produced a 1.63 ERA last year and, on a losing team, was still able to save 33 games.  His strikeout ratio of 15.7 per 9 innings (41.7% of outs produced) was easily the best in baseball.  While Chapman had the best strikeout ratio, the Yankees’ Andrew Miller produced 14.6 strikeouts per 9 innings (40.7%) and Dellin Betances produced 14 strikeouts per 9 innings (39.5%) had the second and third best strikeout ratios respectively.  On paper, that would collectively give the current Yankees' bullpen the top three relief flamethrowers of all time!  I state, “current” because many believe that the Yankees’ general manager, Brian Cashman, may trade Andrew Miller.  Cashman has recently suggested that he is not looking to do that; however, he insinuated that if another team made a very attractive offer, he may consider a trade.

Away from baseball, Chapman has apparently not epitomized anything close to being phenomenal.  His character was recently degraded when the Dodgers discovered (during their own Chapman trade attempt a few weeks ago) that Chapman was initially accused by his girlfriend this past October for an alleged domestic violence incident.  At that time, she claimed that he choked and pushed her after she reacted to something he had on his cell phone.  She supposedly then hid in the bushes.  He admittedly proceeded into the garage (not after her) and shot his gun within the garage, but not towards her in any way (which the police verified).  Since, the police investigation did not show any conclusive evidence supporting violence towards the girlfriend, and (legally) since the girlfriend also chose not to press charges, no arrest was enacted and no further investigation was required.  Still MLB is gathering all of the facts they can find to help them determine if it is viable for them to suspend Chapman, or not.

The Yankees, and every other team for that matter, are fully aware of the allegations.  Again, they are “allegations” and not considered factual (at least at this time).  While the Dodgers feared the allegations and backed out of their trade for Chapman, the Yankees (and supposedly other teams including the Marlins) continued their pursuit.  The whole incident certainly devalued Chapman’s worth and the Yankees pounced on the diminished demand from the Reds.  Certainly, from a baseball standpoint, the Yankees landed themselves a steal of a deal.  Here’s why:

- If Chapman gets suspended for more than 46 games from MLB for his domestic violence incident, it will mean that, instead of him becoming a free agent after the 2016 season, he would have to wait another year for a qualified filing.  Then, the Yankees would have gotten themselves a player for more than 1 season.

- If Chapman does not get suspended for more than 46 games (perhaps even to the extent of no suspension), then Chapman would become a free agent at the end of 2016 (unless the Yankees & him uncommonly agree to extend his contract).  As a free agent, the Yankees would presumably make Chapman a qualifying offer, enabling them a 2017 draft pick.

- As mentioned above, the Yankees only traded players that were not considered (by them) as top-tier.  Yet, at least for 1 year, the Yankees would have just constructed the best 1-2-3 late-innings punch in baseball.  That would shorten their starters’ innings and intimidate all of their opponents.

Starlin Castro (2B)
Besides yesterday’s Aroldis Chapman acquisition, the Yankees also made some other transactional moves this offseason, thus far.  Similar to last year’s acquisition of Didi Gregorius as their future shortstop, they recently attained their future second baseman when they traded reliever/starter Adam Warren and utility infielder Brendan Ryan to the Chicago Cubs for SS/2B Starlin Castro.  I am even more excited about this deal than I was last year in the transaction for Didi, especially since Castro has already achieved himself as a past multi-year All-Star player (and he's only 25 years old).

Aaron Hicks (OF)
In another transaction this offseason, they attained speedy outfielder Aaron Hicks (a student of Torii Hunter) from the Minnesota Twins for their backup catcher, John Ryan Murphy.  Hicks will either serve as their fourth outfielder (replacing departed free agent Chris Young) or Hicks can replace any of the current starting outfielders (Gardner, Ellsbury, or Beltran) if any of them are traded before next season begins.

Ronald Herrera, Luis Cessa, & Chad Green (RHPs)
This offseason, the Yankees traded second baseman, Jose Pirela to the San Diego Padres for a right-handed starting pitching prospect, Ronald Herrera who is already throwing a 94 mph fastball in AA and has recently developed a nice curveball.  Considering they later acquired second baseman Castro and they still have their other second-base prospect, Rob Refsnyder, the Yankees merely traded away a player-type that was very expendable for a much-needed, potentially decent starting pitcher, who is projected to start in the majors by the 2016 or 2017 season.

The only trade that didn’t excite me was the trade the Yankees made with the Detroit Tigers.  They traded Justin Wilson to the Tigers for minor-league right-handers Luis Cessa and Chad Green.  Both Cessa and Green are expected to pitch for the Yankees’ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders AAA team.  While I was not an extreme Justin Wilson fan, and he was also expendable based on several lefty relievers they have in their AAA, I believe his left-handed value for other clubs with impressive 2015 stats could have brought back more in return.  Hopefully, either Cessa or Green improve their numbers immensely in their final developing years, making the trade more worthwhile than it looks.  Time will tell.

Year-end Conclusion
Collectively, I am very proud that each player the Yankees attained were young players (in their 20s) and that the Yankees were simultaneously able to retain their entire pool of top prospects throughout each transaction!  There’s still approximately 3 months before the 2016 season begins and I expect the Yankees to make 2 or 3 more transactions.  Hopefully, they’ll at least attain an additional starting pitcher that has a healthy background, in comparison to their typically unhealthy 5 out of 6 starting pitchers (CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova).  If they are able to land another superstar, I anticipate that they will have to finally trade one of their supposed untouchable top-tier farmhands, Andrew Miller, or Brett Gardner.  Let’s see what happens next; stay tuned!

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