2016 PREDICTIONS - YANKEES & METS

Last year, I predicted the Yankees would win 87 games and they won exactly that!  I also predicted the Mets would win 83, but that prediction was off, as they won 90!  Of course, I’m satisfied with my Yankees prediction, but I’m mostly proud because it was totally against almost every baseball critic, who felt they’d be much worse.  Baseball, like any sport, is all about playing the game, not just relying on past stats.  Predictions should also include analyses of team chemistry, health, players’ contract statuses/incentives, evaluations of each team’s competitors (especially those who they play most), trade power (money & talented assets), etc.  Of course a lot of that can’t be evaluated without failure and a lot of it is pure luck!!!

Still, we all love to predict and love to opinionate.  I’m no different on that front!  So, here are my insightful predictions of both NY teams again…

The New York Yankees (89 wins)

This year, I’m also including the roster to help as a visual aid and to offer an interesting reflection later during the season because we know that the rosters never stay the same.  Here is the roster as of today:

Starting Pitchers

Masahiro Tanaka

Michael Pineda

Nathan Eovaldi

Luis Severino

CC Sabathia

Relievers

Andrew Miller

Dellin Betances

Chasen Shreve

Ivan Nova

Johnny Barbato

Luis Cessa

Kirby Yates

Aroldis Chapman (domestic abuse - suspended through May 8)

Bryan Mitchell (fractured toe/disabled list)

Hitters

Brett Gardner

Jacoby Ellsbury

Carlos Beltran

Mark Teixeira

Alex Rodriguez

Brian McCann

Starlin Castro

Chase Headley

Didi Gregorius

Aaron Hicks

Austin Romine

Dustin Ackley

Ronald Torreyes

Greg Bird (shoulder labrum tear surgery/disabled list)

Well, another year of the critics loving the Red Sox and hating the Yankees.  In my opinion, the American League East is a crapshoot.  The Blue Jays have great hitting (again), but no pitching; the Rays have great pitching again, but no hitting; the Orioles have awful starting pitching, but great homerun power; the Red Sox improved by acquiring an ace and a closer, but still did not do enough to bring them from last to first; and the Yankees got slightly younger and improved their bullpen flame-throwing intimidation, but still carry the most injury-prone team within the AL East.

I believe that since the whole division is vulnerable, that most will play with a .500 record against each other.  That is a key reason why I feel the Yankees will slightly improve compared to last year’s record.  While the Yankees were the only team in the Majors that did not “buy” a free agent this past offseason, they may be on the cusp of going on a spending binge by year’s end - especially with the upcoming termination of both Teixeira’s and Beltran’s contracts.  That may help them show very little resistance towards acquiring an expensive contract by August’s trade deadline.  Except for Toronto, the other AL East teams seem to have exhausted their opened wallets for this year.

Last year, the Yankees had an awesome bullpen and this year may have improved it even more.  Certainly, they will be feared by all teams when it comes to their late-innings trio of Betances, Miller, and Chapman (when he is activated in May).  For games that offer all three flamethrowers, expect great breezes coming from the mound.  Even with their great bullpen, it is the acquisition of Castro as their new second baseman that excites me the most.  If Castro stays healthy, he will prove to be a vast improvement over the second basemen we had last year - especially Stephen Drew.  I don’t think there was even one Yankees’ fan that liked him!  The defensive tandem of Gregorius and Castro at shortstop and second respectively will certainly be fun to watch on the baseball diamond.  I can’t wait to see them and the bullpen!  Hopefully, watching the team as a whole will be fun, too.  I believe it will because their comradery is strong - something that I weigh heavily when I analyzed “teams”.

The New York Mets (89 wins)

That’s right, for the very first time I am predicting that the Mets will win the same amount of games as the Yankees!  Here’s a view of the Mets’ roster:

Starting Pitchers

Matt Harvey

Noah Syndergaard

Jacob deGrom

Bartolo Colon

Steven Matz

Zack Wheeler (Tommy John surgery/disabled list)

Relievers

Jeurys Familia

Addison Reed

Antonio Bastardo

Jerry Blevins

Hansel Robles

Jim Henderson

Logan Verrett

Josh Edgin (Tommy John surgery/disabled list)

Hitters

Curtis Granderson

David Wright

Yoenis Cespedes

Lucas Duda

Neil Walker

Michael Conforto

Asdrubal Cabrera

Travis d'Arnaud

Kevin Plawecki

Wilmer Flores

Eric Campbell

Juan Lagares

Alejandro De Aza

Unlike the American League’s Eastern Division, the National League’s Western Division is not evenly distributed at all.  The Mets have their great starting pitching, with suspect hitting and the Washington Nationals offer very good hitting and good pitching.  The rest of the teams in that division are very weak.  That means that every time the Mets (and the Nationals) play the Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, and Philadelphia Phillies they have a chance to add more wins than losses to their standings.  That is similar to last year.  The biggest difference with the Mets’ inter-division play is the Nationals.  They lost a few key players, but they added the best acquisition within the division - they hired Dusty Baker as their manager.  He is such a better manager than Matt Williams!

The Mets also improved this year with the acquisitions of Neil Walker (2B) and Asdrubal Cabrera (SS), but they needed to do much more offensively and with their bullpen.  Their starters are the same group, but other teams will now have stronger scouting reports on them.  The Mets should have spent some damn money!!

They also lost heart this past offseason - twice.  First, they removed Wilmer Flores from their starting lineup and alternately made him their utility player.  Second, they released Ruben Tejada to save $1 million.  Both players had unintentionally formed comradery and heart for the team.  Flores, when he cried last year thinking he had been traded and Tejada when he was hit hard by Chase Utley’s aggressive slide during the World Series. In order for them to be a good team they have to become more bonded and not so individualized.  Their starting pitchers are somewhat bonded, with the exception of Matt Harvey.  He seems to be an outcast, mostly by his own doing.  Even their captain, David Wright, is at a loss for words when it comes to Harvey.  Speaking of David Wright, his everyday back condition will certainly be a cause of alarm for this team.

So, there you have it - my 2016 predictions.  It's a long way to game number 162.  Ironically, the Mets will face the defending World Series' Champions (the team that beat them) tonight and, tomorrow, the Yankees will have to face the same dominating pitcher (Dallas Keuchel) from the Astros - the team that beat them in the wildcard playoff game.  From a baseball perspective, this will certainly be an interesting year in New York.